I predict Obama will win the election.
This is partly gut instinct, partly because I support Obama and partly political analysis. When you support a candidate you have to believe they will win otherwise the game is over. As Bob Dylan said, ‘You have to believe. Folk music, if nothing else, make a believer out of you’. This applies equally to Politics. ‘In Politics, guts are all’ to quote the late British politician Barbara Castle.
For example, what other than instincts would compel a little-known black senator from Illinois to seek the Presidency of the United States? Yet Obama’s instincts conspired with events to create the perfect political atmosphere for him to win the 2008 election. Likewise, a classic example of bad political instincts is British Prime Minister Gordon Brown deciding not to call an election in 2007, which his party, Labour had a good chance of winning instead waiting until 2010 when Labour lost.
To win against an incumbent president, the challenger has to be spectacular and the president particularly bad as in the case of Bush and Clinton and Carter and Reagan. I do not believe the American people are convinced by Mitt Romney. I do not believe he has painted his own unique vision for America, like Obama did so brilliantly in 2008.
Romney is the dictionary definition of bland. If Romney wins it will be people voting against Obama rather than for Romney. You’re in a much stronger electoral position if voters want to vote for you as opposed to against someone else. As challenger he is in a much more difficult electoral position than the President. Obama has an easier route to the 270 electoral college votes than Romney.
That said, the election will be very close. It will likely be determined by each campaigns ability to Get Out The Vote. Republicans are massively outspending Democrats. If Romney wins, this money gap, will be largely responsible. It will be an exciting election night with swing states now too difficult to predict.